Public
Opinion, Participation, and Voting
I.
Introduction/Public Opinion (“swing voters” were
target through mailings in 2000; the
“canvas
process” detected preferences/issue positions of possible voters)
A. What is public opinion?
1. Definitions
a. Public opinion is the distribution of individual
preferences for or evaluations of a given issue,
candidate, or institution within a specific population
b. Distribution means the proportion of the population that
holds one opinion or viewpoint as
compared to those with opposing opinions or those with no
opinion at all
c. Individual preference means that when we measure public
opinion, we are asking
individuals about their opinions (in 2000, note
breakdowns for Bush, Gore, Nader)
d. The population is the relevant group of people for the
question
e. A consensus occurs when a substantial percentage of a
sample agree on an issue
f. Polarization occurs when a large portion of opposing sides
feels intensely about an issue
2. Taking the pulse of the public
a. Proper sampling is based on random choice—everyone has a
chance to be selected;
Margin of error means sample reflects population within a
certain percentage
b. Art of asking questions can influence poll response; note
“open-ended” questions
c. Scientific polls rest
upon complete analysis and reporting of results
d. Polls are a snapshot of
opinion—a point in time (note Table 8-1 on Abortion)
3. Factors
a. Intensity – the fervor of people's beliefs varies greatly
b. Latency refers to
political opinions that exist merely as a potential; they may not have
crystallized, yet they are still important
c. Salience means the extent to which people feel that issues
are relevant to them; salience can
change over time; in early 2000s, concerns were drugs,
crime, health care, education, ecology
B. How do we get our political
opinions and values?
1. Political socialization refers to the process by which we develop our
political attitudes, values,
and beliefs (children at an early age adopt common
values—continuity with past, legitimacy)
a. Nationalism--a consciousness of the nation-state and of
belonging to that entity--is a
common element of political socialization
b. Importance of group affiliation versus individual
(sociological or psychological approach)
2. Sources of political socialization
a. Family (parent-child party similarity); disagreements
between youth’s parents and friends
b. Schools (see study of three Boston communities); higher
education and “political correctness”
c. Mass media—wide exposure to papers, Internet, movies, TV;
2000 directed attention to
problems of voting
systems, Electoral College; media provides “link between individuals and
values/behavior of others
d. Other influences
1.
Religious, racial and ethnic attitudes
2.
Dangerous to stereotype people
C. Stability and change in public
opinion
1. We are slow to change our minds about things that matter to us or to
shift our loyalties
2. Opinions that are part of our basic values remain stable over time,
whereas views on issues
that are less central to our values can show substantial
change over time
3. Public opinion can change once public learns about an issue
D. Public opinion and public policy
1. Public opinion change can lead to policy change (Vietnam, Gulf War,
Somalia)
2. Elected officials seek to follow public opinion
3. Candidates use polls to
determine where and how (or even whether to) campaign
4. Political polls are no substitute for elections
E. Awareness and interest
1. Varying levels of interest in politics
a. Attentive public –
25 percent of the American public (better educated)
b. Nonvoters – 35 percent of the American public (sub/set
“political no- nothings”)
c. Part-time citizens – 40 percent of the American public
2. Only 60% can
name one US senator
II. Participation: translating opinions
into action
A. Americans
influence government by voting, joining interest groups, writing letters,
calls, etc.
1. In totalitarian societies, participation is very limited (Slobodan
Milosevic/Tiananmen Square)
2. Even in a democracy, people may fight rather than accept election
(U.S. Civil War)
3. Routine participation—National Anthem, Pledge of Allegiance, jury
duty, complaints, etc.
4. For most Americans, politics is a private activity
a. Less than one person in four attempts to influence another
person’s vote
b. Only one in 20 people make a contribution to candidate;
only one in six designate taxes to
presidential fund
B. Voting
1. The type of political activity most often engaged in by Americans
2. Originally the Constitution left the individual states free to
determine the question of who
could vote; eligibility standards for voting have been
expanded by legislation and
constitutional amendments
C. Registration
1. Voter registration discourages voting
2. Australian ballot: secret
response to multiple voting
3. Registration laws vary by state, but in every state except North
Dakota registration is required
in order to vote
4. The most important provision of voter registration is the closing
date (no state can stop registration more than 30 days
before election)
D. Motor
Voter
1. Allows people to register
when applying for a renewal of driver’s license
2. States can also use
schools/libraries/city/county offices as registration sites
3. States can permit mail
registration
4. Most registered claim to be
Independents—thus neither party helped
5. Does not appear to have increased turnout
E. Turnout
1. Turnout is highest in presidential general elections
2. Turnout is higher in general elections than in primary elections and
higher in primary
elections than in special elections
3. Turnout is higher in presidential general elections than in midterm
general elections and
higher in presidential primary elections than in midterm
primary elections
4. Turnout is higher in elections in which candidates for federal office
are on the ballot than in
state elections in years when there are no federal contests
5. Local or municipal elections have lower turnout than state elections,
and municipal primaries
have even lower rates of participation
6. In 1960, turnout peaked at almost 65 percent of persons over 21 years
of age, but it has since
declined to 36 percent in 1998 and 51 percent in 2000
7. 85 million Americans failed
to vote in recent presidential elections; (despite the electorate
growing wealthier and more educated)
F. Why is turnout so low? (see Table
8-3)
1. Voter registration appears to be the major block to voting
2. Too young; election did not seem important; disinterested in the
candidates; inconvenient
3. American parties are too weak—nonvoter had no contact with party or
organization
G. Who votes?
1. Educational level
a. As education increases, so does voting
2. Race and ethnic background
a. Blacks vote at lower rates than whites
b. Women voters exceed that of men
3. Income and age
a. Those with higher family incomes are more likely to vote
than those with lower incomes
b. Those with higher-status careers are more likely to vote
than those with lower-status jobs
c. Older people, unless they are very old and perhaps infirm,
are more likely to vote than
younger people
d. Persons 18 to 24 years of age have a poor voting record;
so do persons over 70
H. How serious is nonvoting?
1. Some argue that nonvoting is not a critical problem; why make it easy
for apathetic, lazy people
to vote?
2. Some argue that nonvoting is a critical problem and cite the
"class bias" of those who do vote
3. The poor do not use their electoral power
4. But nonvoters are not more
egalitarian or more in favor of government ownership
5.
Lower voter turnout could be seen as a sign of approval
6. If large nonvoter population decided to vote, political balance of
power could shift
7. Need for electoral reform noted after 2000 election—machines,
ballots, standards for
recounts, ensuring the voting process is open to all
citizens, concerns about the news
media projecting winners before the polls close (see “A
Closer Look” insert)
8. See insert covering pros/cons on allowing voting by mail and Internet
III. Voting choices
A. Voting on the basis of party
1. Party identification is the subjective sense of affiliation that a
person has with a political
party, a long-standing preference for one party over the
other
2. Even though there has been a dramatic increase in the number of
Independents beginning in
the mid-1970s, two-thirds of all Independents are, in fact,
partisans in their voting behavior,
reinforcing the importance of partisanship as an explanation
of voting choice
3. Party identification remains more stable than attitudes about issues
or political ideology
B. Voting on the basis of candidates
1. American electoral politics is in a candidate-centered era; In 2000, Bush was viewed as more
“likeable” while Gore was perceived as more “competent”
2. Candidate appeal often involves an assessment of a candidate's
character (Reagan, Eisenhower)
3. Increasingly, campaigns today focus on the negative elements of
candidates; In 2000, Bush
attacked for stands on abortion, environment, etc.; Gore
attacked over fund-raising scandals,
Internet “invention,” and gun control position
4. In 2000, Bush was seen as “honest/trustworthy” while 75% viewed Gore
as understanding issues
C. Voting on the basis of issues
1. Issues, while important, are not as central to the decision process
as partisanship and
candidate appeal partly because candidates often
intentionally obscure their positions on issues
2. Voting on the basis on issues presumes a level of interest in issues
that only a few voters
have
3. Retrospective issue voting is more likely than prospective issue
voting
4. The state of the economy is often the central issue in elections, but
a good economy did not
help Gore stave off defeat in 2000; Republicans claimed
that the people, not the government,
had produced the strong economy
5. Usually, voters vote against party in power if personal finances have
worsened
6. GOP victory in 1994 due to public doubts about Clinton’s leadership
7. Democrats focused on issues in 1998 and picked up five seats in the
House; GOP use of
impeachment issue did not resonate with voters
8. In 2000, GOP worked hard to deny Democrats the issue advantage
9. Democrats charged that 2000 election was unfair and not all the votes
were counted;
a. Counties with largest number of “undervotes” had large
minority group populations
b. Bush did not win majority of national popular vote
c. If Gore had carried Tennessee or Arkansas, he would be
president